By UK — really should be UKR — opps. I thought the abbreviation is pretty clear though.
This is the analysis from the Atlantic Council and is dead right I am sure..
- Ukraine pushes Russian forces out of range of Kharkiv, dismissing the threat of Russian artillery bombardment of the city. (ISW is reporting Kharkiv has already been taken back by UK)
- Ukraine pushes Russian forces from offensive operations in southern Ukraine to defensive positions outside Kharkiv, forcing the Kremlin to protect its territory from a Ukrainian offensive targeting the Russian city of Belgorod. A short Ukrainian offensive near Belgorod would jeopardize Russian supply lines critical to its fight in the Donbas.
- If Ukraine successfully expels Russian forces from northeast of Kharkiv (and it sure looks like they already did) back across the Russian border, it can then flank Russian forces in Izyum, overwhelming them with simultaneous attacks from the west and north.
They appear to be less than 2 miles away from the Russian border right now.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/...
I think they can cut RU’s main supply route AND flank them at the same time. I thought so for some time — that is sure what Ukraine is trying to do alright. They could shorten this war considerably. They can starve the RU eastern offensive.
Watch Izyum. I have been trying to say this. It is true. And I think ISW is likely right about them trying to abandon the Izyum axis. Cause if they don’t they are going to get flanked. Probably too late for RU anyway to get out of there I think. They are VERY vulnerable right now given the events in Kharkyiv over the last few days.
IMHO —
They could sure use F/A planes right now. Not to defend against Russian planes — but to support offensives. It is the entire point of combined arms warfare. And how come the RU navy is still afloat at this point — we had to have given them anti-ship missiles by now. I think RU must be trying to get some force focus in N Crimea right now. (This part is just my opinion.) — if they think their navy is at risk - what the hell else could they do? Past time to sink their surface ships. Pretty sure it is about right. But it is my opinion. My bitches about it have not changed. Get them fighter planes and sink that surface fleet.