The International Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED) and Militiawatch have released an October 2020 joint report: STANDING BY: RIGHT-WING MILITIA GROUPS & THE US ELECTION. (At 28 pages with an excellent executive summary, it is a downloadable pdf and an easy read.)
This joint report reviews the latest data on right-wing militia organizations across the country, identifying the most active groups and mapping the locations most likely to experience heightened militia activity before, during, and after the election.
Although many US militias can be described as ‘latent’ in that they threaten more violence than they commit, several recently organized militias are associated with a right-wing ideology of extreme violence towards communities opposed to their rhetoric and demands for dominance and control. The lack of open sanctions of these groups from public figures and select local law enforcement has given them space to operate, while concurrently allowing political figures to claim little direct responsibility for violent actions from which they hope to benefit.
ACLED has tracked the activities of over 80 militias across the US in recent months, the vast majority of which are right-wing armed groups. This report maps a subset of the most active right-wing militias, including ‘mainstream militias,’ which are those that work to align with US law enforcement (the Three Percenters, the Oath Keepers, the Light Foot Militia, the Civilian Defense Force, and the American Contingency); street movements that are highly active in brawls (the Proud Boys, and Patriot Prayer); and highly devolved libertarian groups, which have a history of conflict and are skeptical of state forces (the Boogaloo Bois, and People’s Rights [Bundy Ranch]). [emphasis mine]
Barriers to their activities include “an overwhelming left-leaning population and/or large populations unsupportive of militias.” Drivers include locations where:
- substantial engagement in anti-coronavirus lockdown protests has occurred,
- militias might have perceptions of ‘leftist coup’ activities, (e.g. Portland)
- they have had recruitment drives or hold training for members,
- they have personal relationships with police or law enforcement, or
- there is a friendly attitude by law enforcement towards militia presence or activity (e.g. Portland).
Using this criteria, the authors identified certain locations which may expect rightwing extremist domestic violence around the election:
States at risk of militia activity
Taking these drivers and barriers into account, capitals and peripheral towns, as well as medium-population cities and suburban areas with centralized zones, in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Oregon are deemed to be at highest risk of increased militia activity in the election and post-election period. Meanwhile, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, California, and New Mexico are found to be at moderate risk.
The report gives readers a concise yet clear description of the various extremist rightwing groups who may fantasize over answering the outgoing president’s call to standby and standup. This lame duck period will be the perfect time for the FBI to standup and defend Americans despite what the ‘president’ wants.