Welcome to my diary series titled Majority Savers! I will run a new article every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. The goal of this series is to highlight races that may make or break our current slender majorities in Congress. That means I will start more with incumbent Senators and House members until some primary elections are settled. If I have time, I will expand it to governors as well in critical swing states.
If you want to find my previous entries in this series, I recommend following me or searching for #MajoritySavers as a tag!
I have six ground rules behind the philosophy of this series. I’d ask you all to respect them as best you can, because these are taking me quite a long time to write. Here are my ground rules.
This candidate has already had one tough race in knocking off a moderate incumbent in the Democratic primary. Now, she has the much tougher job of holding this district in the fall with a much more liberal policy platform. Majority Savers heads to Oregon’s 5th district to spotlight Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who is our candidate for November!
Candidate Background
Jamie McLeod-Skinner has an interesting background. I’ve used both Wikipedia and her own campaign site to synthesize as much as possible. Here are the highlights.
- She graduated from Cornell University with a master’s degree in engineering. In 2016, she graduated from Oregon Law School as well.
- She has been the city manager of quite a few small towns in Oregon since moving back to the state. She also served in war torn Bosnia and in Kosovo as a reconstruction manager.
- Her political experience includes serving on the Santa Clara city council before moving to Oregon — expect her to be tarred as a “California liberal”. She ran against Rep. Walden in Oregon’s 2nd district in 2018 and made a respectable showing. She also came in a close 3rd place for Oregon Secretary of State in the 2020 primaries.
Signature Issues
Rep. Kurt Schrader was a moderate who opposed some of the big ticket items of president Joe Biden. McLeod-Skinner ran to his left in the primary, so it could be reasoned that she would be more of a pragmatic liberal in the House should she be elected to that body. Here is what she is emphasizing with her campaign…
Climate Change: She was the city manager of a town devastated by forest fires in 2020, so she knows the stakes of climate change acutely. Remember that the Pacific Northwest had a deadly heat wave that was unprecedented last year as well. She wishes to improve disaster response and support clean energy.
Democracy Protection: McLeod-Skinner is an advocate of expanding access to voting to as many people as possible. She has called for campaign finance reform and an end to gerrymandering (which may put her in office ironically enough). Her opponent is a 2020 election denier, so protecting democracy is at near the top of her list.
Social Safety Net: Unlike Schrader, McLeod-Skinner wants to strengthen Medicare and Medicaid by allowing them to negotiate drug prices at the bare minimum. She has strongly come out against the Sen. Scott plan to end these benefits programs after 5 years.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 52.8%, TFG (R-inc) 44.0%
2020 House: Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 51.9%, Amy Ryan Courser (R) 45.1%
2022 Race Rating: Tossup
2022 PVI: D+1
This district has some unique trivia attached to it. For instance, it seems like getting divorced is a pre-requisite for holding this seat going back at least 30 years if not longer. All of the incumbents going back that far have been divorced. Jamie McLeod-Skinner is also divorced (I did not check to see if her GQP opponent is divorced as well). It has no bearing on the election, but it is fascinating trivia.
On a more serious note, this district has been a swing seat for at least 30 years, with incumbents rarely topping above 55% of the vote. The last time the GQP held this seat was the 1994 Republican Revolution, when Rep. Jim Bunn pulled off the upset. He was replaced by a moderate in Rep. Darlene Hooley, who was replaced herself by the former incumbent in Rep. Kurt Schrader in 2008.
In terms of presidential lean, this district has been won by Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 2016, albeit very narrowly. Biden expanded the margin for error during the 2020 election to 53-43, and the new district has a similar lean even though it covers new territory. The blue lean of this district is not overwhelming, and with Schrader defeated there is a decent chance that the GQP can win this seat in November.
Political Tour of the District
This district starts with the southern suburbs and exurbs of the Portland metro area, and then it goes off into ruby red rural turf in central Oregon. Mapmakers excised one of the fastest growing small metro areas in the country in the Bend metro area from the 2nd district. Bend is also gaining a reputation as a liberal oasis in what is otherwise very hostile turf. It will be Bend that decides who goes to Congress from this district in 2022.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 5th district.
- Portland Suburbs and Exurbs: These suburbs of the Portland metro area are one of the two rich vote sources for Democratic candidates in the district. It is important that McLeod-Skinner meet the Biden margins in this section of the district and that these suburbs do not snap back to a lesser margin.
- Bend Metro Area: The liberal oasis of Bend is critical to the success of McLeod-Skinner, as this growing area is the other rich source of votes in the district. She already has good connections with this part of the district through her prior runs for elected office. That goodwill needs to continue because other portions of the district are much more hostile to Democratic candidates.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Rural Oregon: Rural Clackamas, Marion, and Linn Counties are irredeemably red in nature, with only a few blue precincts in Silverton and Albany breaking up the sea of red. McLeod-Skinner has already stated she hopes to keep the margins down in rural turf, and for her sake I hope she can accomplish this mission because her election to Congress may depend upon it.
- Kurt Schrader voters: This former Congressman has the power to either support McLeod-Skinner or knife her in the back. Already, some of his messaging after the primary indicates that he is leaning towards the latter. He is a prominent moderate voice in the district, and how involved he is in courting his supporters from the primary may determine who wins this seat.
Activism — Help How You Can!
Jamie McLeod-Skinner was outspent 10-1 in the primary and wound up winning anyways. However, this strategy isn’t likely to be fruitful in the fall election. She raised a cool $314k for the primary in Quarter 1, which means now she needs to up her game and raise at least double if not triple that amount. Her saving grace is that her GQP opposition didn’t raise much either. She has been placed on the Red to Blue national program, which will hopefully up her fundraising game.
Her coffers are also drained from the primary, as she has around $310k in cash on hand to get out her message. Luckily, her GQP opponent has even less than that on hand right now. This is a race where dark money is likely going on the attack. McLeod-Skinner desperately needs donations for this race, because she is likely going to be one of the first triages if the midterms go sour as she is NOT an incumbent.
DONATE TO JAMIE MCLEOD-SKINNER HERE
If you live in the Portland or Bend area, this is an excellent opportunity to volunteer for a campaign. McLeod-Skinner does have grassroots support, but this is a different kind of race than what she is used to running. She could use the help, so sign up at http://jamiefororegon.com/ for her race to keep the 5th district of Oregon blue!
On social media, Jamie McLeod-Skinner could use some more followers. She has a shade under 10k followers with 9,730 on Twitter. This is a good start, but to get her message out she will need more of them.
Her other social media platforms include Facebook at JamieForOregon and also Instagram at jamiefororegon.
Jamie McLeod-Skinner has already beaten the odds once by winning the primary over Rep. Kurt Schrader. It will take some luck and your support for her to win over the citizens of Oregon’s 5th district for a general election. I have written 25 articles for Majority Savers now, and this is the first one where I am advising readers to donate what they can a second time. Jamie McLeod-Skinner will need it!
Previous Entries:
Raphael Warnock Dr. Yadira Caraveo Frank Mrvan, Jr. Cheri Beasley
Emilia Sykes Catherine Cortez Masto Dr. Kim Schrier Cindy Axne
Jared Golden Dan Kildee Elaine Luria Greg Stanton
Lauren Underwood Susie Lee Matt Cartwright Maggie Hassan
Greg Landsman Tom O’Halleran Don Davis Sharice Davids
Marcy Kaptur Vicente Gonzalez Angie Craig Abigail Spanberger