Here’s the latests news today out of Arizona courtesy of OH Predictive Insights latest poll:
When Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Kelly was elected last November, he faced a rather unique position than most of his other freshman colleagues: U.S. Senators are normally elected to six-year terms, but Kelly – who won a special election to finish the late-Sen. John McCain's term – would have to face voters once again in two years for a fresh six-year term. According to OH Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey, Senator Mark Kelly is leading the pack in all head-to-head matchups.
This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey was conducted September 7th – September 12th, 2021 and surveyed 882 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.
Here’s are the head to head numbers:
With 13 months left to go until the general election, Kelly finds himself in a comfortable position, leading all four Republican candidates in potential head-to-head matchups. Against Brnovich, Senator Kelly currently leads 43% to 39%. Kelly leads McGuire 44% to 37%, Lamon 43% to 36%, and Masters 44% to 35%.
It is worth pointing out that Senator Mark Kelly does not poll above 45% against any of his potential rivals. “Evidently, Kelly is attempting to keep a low profile in an off-year while his opponents try to build up name recognition – a strategy that seems to be working, at least for now,” said Mike Noble.
And this clown is leading the GOP pack:
While we are still more than a year out from the 2022 election, the Republican primary to take on Senator Kelly is beginning to take shape. National and state Republicans listed Kelly as a top 2022 target almost immediately after his victory. As such, several Republicans began making moves to challenge him. So far, the GOP candidates include Attorney General Mark Brnovich, retired Air Force Major General Michael McGuire, and businessmen Blake Masters and Jim Lamon. Among Republican Primary voters, Brnovich leads with double-digit support (27%), followed by McGuire in second with 14%. Both Masters and Lamon are polling at 6% and 3%, respectively.
Though Brnovich holds support from just over one quarter of Republican voters, the race could still be anyone’s to win: 51% of Republican voters have yet to say who they will support. Former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement has proven to be quite powerful in the Republican primaries, has not yet taken a side in this primary – which could drastically change the entire landscape of the race should he decide to weigh in.
"The bottom line: Brnovich is in a strong position right now, but the race is far from locked down given more than half of Republicans are undecided on who they will vote for," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.
Here’s a current reminder on who Brnovich:
Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R) has requested documents from both the state Senate and Maricopa County officials days after a report into the results of the 2020 election failed to deliver a smoking gun that would prove wrongdoing or errors behind former President Trump’s election loss.
In letters to the Senate, which ordered the audit earlier this year, and the county, where Republican officials have pushed back against the Senate GOP’s inquiry, Brnovich’s office requested copies of reports and evidence presented last week.
“The Arizona Senate’s report that was released on Friday raises some serious questions regarding the 2020 election,” Brnovich said without detailing any of those questions. “Arizonans can be assured our office will conduct a thorough review of the information we receive.”
Also:
Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich wants the state’s appeal of a lower court ruling that struck down a host of Republican legislation, including a ban on face mask mandates in schools, to go straight to the Arizona Supreme Court.
On Tuesday, the state petitioned the Supreme Court to take the case from the Court of Appeals and also asked Arizona’s highest court for an emergency stay on Monday’s ruling.
The Supreme Court denied the stay request Wednesday but has yet to decide if it will take over the case before it goes through the Court of Appeals.
In the state’s transfer request, Brnovich argued that the appeal should be expedited because the case is of high importance and will “almost certainly” make its way to the Supreme Court eventually.
Brnovich also argued that Superior Court Judge Katherine Cooper’s ruling was “legally erroneous in numerous respects.”
“Those multiple flaws carry serious statewide consequences for the legislative process in Arizona and could now subject hundreds of state laws to challenge on title and single subject grounds,” the petition says.
“The trial court’s ruling carries significant implications for the operation of state government and the State will continue to suffer harm if the trial court’s ruling is not swiftly overturned, allowing the challenged provisions to immediately go into effect.”
And in case your wondering:
Though she will not be on the ballot again for another three years, Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s favorability ratings continue to be quite interesting. Overall, 46% of Arizona voters view her favorably while 39% view her unfavorably. Results of this survey found that Sinema enjoys support (and opposition) in places that you wouldn’t necessarily predict for a swing-state Democratic Senator.
Among Republicans, her net favorability is underwater by less than 10 points. Less than half (48%) of Republicans view her in an unfavorable light, while 40% view her favorably – a stark contrast to Senator Mark Kelly who is viewed unfavorably by 73% of Republicans. Among Democrats, Sinema’s net favorability is positive by only 26 points. She is viewed favorably by just 56% of Democratic voters, while nearly one third (30%) of her own party views her unfavorably. In comparison, Sinema’s fellow Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is viewed favorably by nearly 80% of Democrats.
Kyrsten Sinema’s opposition to progressive priorities such as a $15/hour minimum wage and filibuster reform appear to be impacting her numbers among Democratic voters. "Kyrsten Sinema still has plenty of time to turn these numbers around, but make no mistake: a 30% unfavorable rating from voters in your own party is not the ideal place for a Senator be," said Jacob Joss, Data Analyst at OH Predictive Insights. "Numbers like that could potentially open the door for primary challengers."
“In comparing favorability ratings of Arizona’s two Democratic Senators, it is interesting to see how unfavorable Sinema is among her own party. With three years left until her next election, Sinema has plenty of time to win over these Democrats - and more importantly, the vital vote of Independents,” said Jacob Joss.
FYI:
The poll was conducted ahead of Sinema’s involvement in the latest congressional battle as the White House and Democratic leaders attempt to pass a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and a larger $3.5 trillion spending package through the budget reconciliation process.
Sinema has opposed the reconciliation bill but has not yet publicly indicated what she would specifically want changed to support it.
However, she and fellow moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) have both argued that the $3.5 trillion called for by President Biden and Democratic leaders is too high.
Biden has met with Sinema multiple times in the last few weeks, and White House officials met with the Arizona senator as recently as Wednesday.
Progressives in the House have threatened to vote against the Senate-passed infrastructure bill unless a deal is reached on passing the larger reconciliation package.
In order for the reconciliation bill to pass in the Senate in the face of opposition from all 50 Republicans, all 50 Democrats in the upper chamber will need to support it.
Manchin on Wednesday specifically called out progressives for the price tag of the sweeping social spending package, calling trillions of dollars in spending “fiscal insanity.”
While Sinema has not been clear on any components of the bill she would specifically like changed, Manchin has argued for changes in the tax code and adding means testing to certain benefits.
While Biden is the first Democrat to flip Arizona sinceBill Clinton’s 1996 presidential campaign, she has sorely misread the landscape unlike Kelly:
Over the weekend, the state’s Democratic Party threatened a symbolic vote of no confidence against Ms. Sinema. Dissatisfied donors and activists are starting a Primary Sinema political action committee to raise money to fund primary challengers in 2024 if she blocks the Democratic agenda in Washington.
At the same time, House Democrats are now threatening to derail the trillion-dollar bipartisan infrastructure bill hammered out by Ms. Sinema that has already passed the Senate.
The turmoil is not just testing Ms. Sinema’s strategy of staying in the middle lane, but also Arizona’s changing political trajectory.
Democratic activists believe that Ms. Sinema’s political future — and Arizona’s — lies in the growing number of left-leaning Latino and young voters in Phoenix and the fast-growing cities of surrounding Maricopa County, home to about 60 percent of Arizona’s 7.3 million residents. They point to some surveys showing support for Democratic proposals to expand Medicare, provide more child care or expand tax cuts to working-class people.
If you’re on of Sinema’s constituents in Arizona, she needs to hear from you. Click here to contact her office and demand she stop blocking President Biden’s agenda and carve out the filibuster to protect voting rights.
Democracy and Health are on the ballot next year and we need to get ready to keep Arizona Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with U.S. Senator Mark Kelly (D. AZ) and his fellow Arizona Democrats campaigns: